The break-even point for a 6-point teaser at -130 odds suddenly jumps from 72.4% to 75.2% - which is right at the historical rate (75.8%) I illustrated above. books that offer -120.Įverything I've said is predicated on the fact that you have access to a reasonable teaser price (-120 or lower). Again, this analysis only applies to teasing NFL sides.ĭon't pay -130 for a 6-point teaser (which would significantly increase your long term hurdle rate) when there are still books out there that offer -120. If you consider a few other factors (which I'll explain shortly), you can potentially improve that percentage. Those results capture the closing lines on all teams in those specific spread ranges. That gives us a total of 592-189 or 75.8%, which easily clears the 72.4% hurdle rate. And favorites between -7.5 and -8.5 have historically covered at a slightly higher clip of 76.8% (218-66). NFL regular season underdogs between +1.5 and +2.5 covered a 6-point teaser 75.2% of the time (374-123). The story changes if we filter for all teases that would've captured both the 3 and 7. That obviously doesn't clear the hurdle rate of 72.4%. If we look back in our Bet Labs database, all NFL regular season spreads since 2003 covered only 68.7% (6,638-3,026) of the time if teased six points over a sample set containing just under 10,000 data points. In order to break even on a 6-point teaser at -110, you need teams that have a greater than 72.4% chance of covering after being teased. You may hear some bettors refer to doing this as the good ol' Wong teaser (in reference to gambling author Stanford Wong). Therefore, you almost always want to cross both when teasing a side.įrom a purely mathematical standpoint, you give yourself an edge without taking anything else into account by simply crossing 3 and 7 with both parts of a teaser at -110. However, 3 and 7 are kings since games end on those two numbers at a significantly higher clip than the rest. Historically, 3, 4, 6, 7, 10 and 14 are the six most common margins of victory in the NFL.

3 team 7 point teaser payout